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D2D Afloat.ie Prediction: Rockabill VI Favourite But Chasing J/109 Mojito Will be Faster If Winds Lighten

16th June 2017
Rockabill VI (top) should round the Fastnet Rock by 11 am and Mojito (above) around 12.30 pm Rockabill VI (top) should round the Fastnet Rock by 11 am and Mojito (above) around 12.30 pm Photo: Afloat.ie

As the 2017 Dun Laoghaire to Dingle Race enters its closing stages, Afloat.ie sticks its neck out and predicts how the race will pan out later today. Tide may yet play a big part in this race that looks set to reach a climax at tea time.

The Yellowbrick D2D Race tracker is saying Rockabill VI (Paul O'Higgins) is leading on corrected time and is estimated to beat Mojito (Peter Dunlop and Vicky Cox) as of 9.30am by just one minute. All of this assumption, however, is based on the boats taking the same time to complete the remainder of the race as they did to complete is so far. Rockabill VI, for instance, has a Velocity Made Good (VMG) so far of just five knots, quite similar to Mojito. It will be between these two as with the wind expected to hold for the next 12 hours, it is unlikely that a small boat will do well.

With approximately seven miles between the two boats and the tide changing in their favour shortly, Rockabill should round the Fastnet Rock by 11 am and Mojito around 12.30 pm. Should this happen, Rockabill will owe Mojito about 95 minutes on corrected time, so there will be very little between them.

Then both will crack sheets and Rockabill should have an advantage here if the breeze stays up.

However, with the tide under them the lower rated boats will fare a bit better. It could be by 3pm or so, after six hours of tide, then Mojito may have an edge. After Rockabill rounds the Fastnet and increases speed the Yellowbrick tracker will be showing her well in the lead but this is misleading as once she extends further miles in the lead, Yellowbrick will calculate her vmg to date (approx 5 knots) and use this to calculate her time advantage based on her only doing 5 knots. She will, however, be doing 10 knots, as will Mojito so a 15–mile advantage at the rock will only take Mojito 1.5 hours, but Yellowbrick will calculate it as three hours at five knots VMG.

Whoever has a code Zero between the two may also get an advantage as it will likely become that condition as the boats continue to bear away around the Bull Rock. Afloat.ie thinks tide will play a big part in this race. With Rockabill having about 70 miles to go Afloat.ie would expect her to finish about 6 pm, against the tide.

Mojito will also be against the tide at the finish so the 20 approx miles that Rockabill will be ahead by then, may take nearly three hours to cover for Mojito, which will be too long. As we write this also Mojito looks to be in lighter conditions inshore near Baltimore, whereas Rockabill is off Cape clear in stronger winds and is extending her gain.

Tracker is here

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