A new report for two British fishing industry organisations says that over a third of English and Welsh fishing waters and more than half of Scottish waters could be inaccessible to trawling by 2050 due to plans for offshore energy and expansion of marine protected areas.

The report for the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation (SFF) and National Federation of Fishermen’s Organisations (NFFO) published today (30 June) examines three future scenarios to demonstrate the scale of displacement the fishing fleet may face.

The report, entitled “Spatial Squeeze in Fisheries”, was produced by independent consultancy ABPmer.

It is said to be the first such study to quantify the cumulative impact on commercial fishing of “hugely increased competition for space” in the marine environment.

It says in the “worst case scenario”, where fishing is banned in designated highly protected marine areas (HPMAs) and offshore renewable energy expands to meet central and devolved government net zero targets, approximately half (49%) of British fishing waters (357,000km2) could be lost.

Broken down, Scotland could lose 56% of its fishing waters (260,000 km2) and England and Wales losing 36% of theirs (83,000 km2 and 11,100km2 respectively), the study says.

“Even if the worst-case assumptions are not realised, an area of 277,000km2 (38% of British waters) are likely to be lost by then, threatening the very existence of British fishing businesses and causing severe harm to coastal communities,”the report says.

“The pace and scale of change is evident. Trawling is currently excluded from around a third of Scottish waters. Looking back to 2000, trawling was restricted in less than 1% of Scottish and English waters,”the two organisations state.

“In all the future scenarios examined in the report, Scotland is projected to lose far more of its waters for trawling when compared to the rest of Britain – almost double that of England in one of the 2050 scenarios,”they state.

Elspeth Macdonald, chief executive of the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation and Barrie Deas,chief executive of the National Federation of Fishermen’s Organisations, said that “the outlook ahead is truly frightening”.

“The report shows that expansion of both offshore renewable energy generation and marine conservation are being prioritised above fishing, despite fishing’s value in producing low carbon, healthy and sustainable food, contributing to our food security and supporting thousands of jobs in our coastal communities,”they said.

“The industry’s voice and interests are being downplayed by government when it comes to overall strategy for marine planning, and in relation to individual planning decisions. No one disputes the need for renewables to help in the battle against climate change, however the scale of development proposed offshore risks putting an already climate-smart industry to the sword,” they said.

“It is deeply unjust that fishing businesses and fishing communities are being denied an equal say when we are the sector likely to feel the most significant impact,” they said.

“We need a proper seat at the table and for consultation to be meaningful, not just lip-service,” they added.

The report indicates that it is not too late for action to minimise the impact on fishing considerably through much better planning and design and the implementation of mitigation measures.

“Both the British and Scottish governments need to recognise the importance of sustainable fisheries for both food production and livelihoods, and more effectively integrate our industry into the marine spatial planning and decision-making systems. The benefits of climate-smart energy should not be at the expense of climate-smart food,” Ms Macdonald and Mr Deas said.

“Fishing industry representatives need to be given a stronger and more effective voice in the planning process, at both strategic plan and project level, to ensure that the potential impact on the fleet of proposed developments and conservation zones are adequately expressed and considered so that impacts can be avoided or minimised. There must be real, meaningful consultation, not just lip service,” they emphasised.

The ABPmer report focuses on demersal trawling, with further work required on pelagic trawling and shellfish fishing, they note. However, they say the study is “an important starting point to underline just how serious the spatial squeeze will be for Britain’s fishing fleet”.