On the major East-West box trades, ocean freight rates might be surging just as the new vessel orderbook for container ships look bare but that does not mean the outlook for carriers will remain bright indefinitely.

According to the latest analysis by Alphaliner, rates on the Asia-Europe trade are particularly vulnerable to new vessel deliveries and a demand downturn later this year.

“The big carriers are currently enjoying strong cargo demand and healthy spot rates on the two biggest East-West trades,” it noted.

However, Alphaliner said how cargo demand evolves after the summer peak season was difficult to predict. “European and US importers might currently be refilling their stocks as they fear new waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a flat market after the summer,” it added.

“The delivery of 86 ships over 10,000 TEU capacity is expected to put extra pressure on the Asia to Europe trade as the biggest ships are expected to be deployed there.”

For more including newbuild orderbook chart, LloydsLoadingList reports.