#roundireland – Inis Mor, Tonnerre and Noonmark VI are still podium boats as the fleet races across the North coast but the outcome of the next 24 hours may well decide the 2012 Round Ireland race.

While often the graveyard for Round Ireland success, the tide in the North Channel can not only be a boost to progress over the ground but can also boost a boat up the leaderboard.  The trick is to have the luck to arrive at the east side of Rathlin close to Low Water Dover and ride the flood as far as the wind permits.  If the stars align, the 68 mile passage to South Rock can be done in one tide and the lucky yacht will avoid adverse tides in the North part of the Irish Sea.

Unfortunately for Green Dragon and Tonerre, it looks like they are nearly 100% out of phase and are heading over towards the Mull of Kintyre to benefit from lesser tide on the Scottish side of the North Channel.  The news isn't much better for the handicap leaders either, some 50 miles to the west, as with the lessening breeze they are down to less than three knots. At the moment it is looking good for the chasing pack some 80 miles further back, but making speeds in excess of 6 knots.  But the pack looks sure to encounter the lighter winds before too long.

The variable factors and a fleet spread from Rathlin to Loop Head, render leaderboards and predictions extremely unreliable. Inis Mor, Tonnerre and Noonmark VI are still the podium boats at this stage and if they can get through the light patch, may be able to hang on until the finish in Wicklow, but notable movers behind are NUI Galway, Sgrech, Aquelina and, with a sense of inevitably, two time winner Cavatina.

The light airs will be creating extreme frustration amongst the leaders and with no major increase in wind speed in the future, thoughts of food rationing may well be entering the sailor's minds.

It's going to be an interesting 24 to 36 hours! Check back with afloat.ie during today for the very latest leaderboard news.

Meanwhile here's the estimated leaderboard at 20.30 last night (Tuesday) with corrected handicap time lapse on leaders shown in days: hours: minutes: 

1 Inis Mor
2 Tonnerre de Breskens 3. 00 days: 00 hours: 46 minutes
3 Lee Overlay Partners 00:03:12
4 Noonmark VI 00:03:26
5 NUI Galway 00:10:00
6 Maxvmg Fortissimo 00:10:30
7 Sgrech 00:10:56
8 Spirit of Jacana 00:11:00
9 Diablo-j 00:11:01
10 Fastrak VIII 00:11:37
11 Jedi 00:11:45
12 Visit Malta Puma 00:11:50
13 Joker 2 00:12:01
14 Fujitsu 00:12:46
15 Aquelina 00:13:30
16 LC Tyres Lulabelle 00:13:31
17 IOSS- Desert Star 00:13:46
18 Pyxis 00:13:47
19 Cavatina 00:14:07
20 Wild Spirit 00:14:42
21 Twister 00:14:53
22 Persistance 00:14:57
23 Exhale 00:17:10
24 Cracklin' Rosie 00:17:20
25 EOS 00:17:33
26 Adelie 00:18:05
27 Midnight Mojito 00:18:22
28 Nunatak 00:19:11
29 Lancasrtian 00:20:11
30 Legally Blonde 00:20:26
31 Green Dragon 00:20:31
32 Pink Panter 00:22:47
33 Team Wild Goose 00:23:23
34 English Mick 01:03:14
35 Sarnia 01:05:48
36 Ocean Tango 01:09:55