#roundireland – As predicted by www.afloat.ie it looks increasingly likely as if Piet Vroon's Ker 46 Tonnerre de Breskens 3 will follow in the footsteps of the legendary Moonduster, by winning successive Round Ireland Races.
While the final few miles are painfully wet, misty and slow, particularly on Green Dragon, it is likely that Tonnerre will cross the finishing line at the turn of the tide around 0730 this morning. This elapsed time of about 3 days 19 hours and 30 minutes will correct to 4 days 18 hours setting a tough target for the chasing pack.
DOWNLOAD THE PREDICTOR AS A PDF BELOW
Tonnerre, who struggled a bit at the top end of the North Channel, sailed a good race down the Irish Sea, maintaining pace with the much faster Green Dragon for a long period. Her standing was enhanced considerably by the bad luck of long time leader Inis Mor, who, along with Noonmark VI and Maxvmg Fortissimo, encountered strong adverse tides and a period of calm.
Not that it's all over yet, far from it. As the www.afloat.ie exclusive table shows (download attachment below as a pdf), there is still an opportunity for a number of boats to overtake Tonnerre. Inis Mor is the leading candidate, but Cavatina, Sgrech and NUI Galway all have an outside chance. To do so they will need a number of things –stronger wind, minimal distance and luck with the tides. Unfortunately, while they will enjoy freshening winds, it is the direction that is likely to kill off the challenge. Southerly forecasts mean it will be a noser for the rest of the way to Wicklow, forcing boats to beat to the finish, increasing the rhumb line distance.
So, with the battle continuing for the minor placings and class honours, it looks like another great success for Piet Vroon and his team, and possible heartbreak once again for Bernard Guoy and the Inis Mor crew. Whatever the outcome, 200 or so tired and hungry sailors will remember this one for a long time to come.
The www.afloat.ie exclusive predictor shows that Inis Mor, if she can maintain the average speed to date, can catch Tonnerre. All of the other boats have to improve on their average to date.
