The last race of the AveryCrest 2016 ISORA series, the “LC Tyres James Eadie Race”, takes place on Saturday 10th September from Pwllheli to Dun Laoghaire, a distance of about 75 miles. As happened in the last two years this very popular race has been hampered by bad weather forecast. While the forecast for the race promises to be “champagne sailing”, weather for the delivery of Irish boat to Pwllheli and the return of the UK boats after the race is less attractive.
AS the series is scored using the High Point system, this race is critical for four boats, any of whom can win the overall Avery Crest ISORA Championship and be celebrating in the NYC after the race.
Competitors and shore crew are now trying to work out the permutations of who could win and what margin they require to win the Overall Championship for the Woolf’s Head, Class 1, Class 2 and the Silver Fleet. To work out the possibilities and understand the complex tactics during the race the competitors and tacticians on-board will be looking closely at the points each boat will achieve from the scoring system for finishing positions in the race.
The following is an overview of the bespoke scoring system that ISORA has successfully used since 2011 to reflect the varying fleet sizes and to reflect the difficulty difference between races. The whole series of 12 races is scored using the ‘ISORA High Scoring System’ where the more difficult races are weighted with a factor of 1.3 for cross channel Races over 100 miles. 1.2 for cross channel races less than 100 miles. 1.1 for the Night Race and 0.9 for day races. A win in a large fleet will also score better than a win in a small fleet using the ‘CHIPS 3’ formula. Without weighting or adjustment for fleet size a win would score 100.
The fleet size entered for the race on Saturday was 27 boats and the race was scheduled with a weighting factor of 1.2. This would give the winning boat in a large fleet 120 points. Due to the changing weather forecast and other factors the fleet size has now been confirmed at 19 boats and this would give the winning boat 118.9 points.
The Overall series is won by the boat that scores most in her best five races. So if we look at the best 4 results for each boat so far (see table below results adjusted to best 4 results). Sgrech is in the best position with 450.2 points, a margin of 20 points on the next boat Aurelia with 430.2 followed closely by Mojito with 429.7, then Ruth with 428.8 and Jackknife with 389.5
For Aurelia to win she must get more than 20 points more than Sgrech
In a fleet of 19, first place will get 118.9 and 5th would get 95.0 (see results for race 5)
So if Aurelia is first and Sgrech 4th – Sgrech will win the championship.
Mojito, Aurelia or Ruth could win if Sgrech is 5th or worse whichever is in first place.
If Jackknife is first, she would end up with 508.4 so Aurelia, Ruth and Mojito would have to be 8th or worse for Jackknife to come second to Sgrech.
Points of interest –
• The current ISORA Champion is Ruth who is looking for a third win in a row having won in 2014 and 2015
• The race on Saturday is also a standalone race for the James Eadie Trophy
• There have been 54 boats taking part in one or more ISORA race in 2016 and increase from 39 in 2012 and 26 in 2009.
• Sgrech has 6 results in the top 3 and must be 4th or better to secure an overall win (and Class 1 win) if Aurelia, Ruth or Mojito are first in this race.
• In Silver Class Albiero leads Aquaplane by only 10 points – so whoever comes first will probably win!
• In Class 2 Adelie is well clear of the fleet so should confirm her overall win of Class 2 on Saturday
• The race can be followed live on the ISORA YB tracker here
ISORA Chairman, Peter Ryan said … ‘It really is all to play for in the last race with tactics and boat covering being the order of the day - Aurelia, Ruth and Mojito will want to do something different to Sgrech. Going on a flyer may work, so who does Sgrech cover and in covering one could another slip through!! The forecast will have a say in matters with very light winds now being forecasted for Saturday with lots of wind on Friday and Sunday and the winds swinging from NE to SW during the time of the race – so big opportunities to make big gains on wind shifts and “….it is not over until the fat lady sings”.