A former Irish Olympic sailing 49er coach is confident either of the two Irish skiff teams can win the four-way battle for the last Tokyo place this weekend at the International Lanzarote Regatta.
As Afloat reported last week, there are four nations in contention for one remaining place in the 49er class: Ireland, Estonia, Italy and Belgium. 51 teams are registered for the six-day event.
Ireland will be represented by two teams; the experienced double Olympian Ryan Seaton (Carrickfergus Sailing Club) and Séafra Guilfoyle (Royal Cork Yacht Club); and first-time campaigners Robert Dickson (Howth Yacht Club) and Sean Waddilove (Skerries Sailing Club).
Tytus Konarzewski who coached Dickson (23) and Waddilove (22), to Under-23 World Championship victory in 2018 offered an insight that it will ultimately be the crew that makes the 'less small mistakes' will succeed next week.
The Polish coach says: "For sure they have a chance. The question is: how are they prepared?"
Seaton (33), the 49er rep from London and Rio, and Guilfoyle (23) are being chased very hard by the former 420 dinghy sailors Dickson and Waddilove who first stepped foot in a 49er in 2015.
An examination of results from world-girdling Irish campaigns provides a form guide but even that is punctuated by COVID.
In only their third-ever appearance at a senior event, in December 2019 the Dickson and Waddilove qualified for the 49er World Championships Gold fleet after a high stakes day in Auckland Harbour, an event in which 'favourites', Seaton and Guilfoyle did not make the cut.
Neither of the Irish crews then made gold fleet two months later at the 2020 Worlds in Geelong, Australia. Then, after seven months without racing, Irish crews checked in with the European fleet at Kiel Week last September in a build-up to the European Championships. It produced some important markers for both Irish men's skiff teams, not least the fact that it was the Dickson and Waddilove that came out on top. The Howth pairing finished 14th some 13 places ahead of double Olympian Seaton and Guilfoyle who had a silver fleet finish in 27th place in the 52-boat fleet.
Konarzewski, who coached the Irish 49erFX team in Rio, says that Seaton (who made the 2016 medal race final in Rio) would have been expected to have qualified Ireland by now. There is no doubting the talent of the 31-year-old who brought home the Silver Medal from the ISAF World Championship in Hyeres on France's Mediterranean coast in 2014 and two years later won the Gold Medal in the 49er skiff event in a keen fleet at the Princess Sofia Regatta in Palma in the build-up to Rio in 2016.
More recently, showing the depth of their ambition, Seaton and Guilfoyle placed sixth in the World Cup medal race at Enoshima, the site for the summer’s Olympics, in August 2019.
Certainly, it's hard to fathom how after starting out ahead of the curve for Tokyo five years ago, Ireland is now in the 49er last chance saloon. However, 'we are where we are', as the saying goes, and the final chance to secure the last berth begins this Sunday.
Konarzewski, who no longer works for the Irish Sailing Association, believes that Ireland can be on the 49er starting line for Tokyo in four months time and, significantly, also in Paris 2024, where he predicts we could be "medal contenders" in the men's skiff.
The two 49er teams are supported next week in the Canaries by Seaton's former London and Rio crew Matt McGovern and Laser coach Sean Evans.
Originally planned for the Princess Sofia Regatta in Mallorca (Spain), the last-minute change in venue for the Qualifier was announced in February due to COVID-19. The event is hosted by the Canary Islands Sailing Federation over three different race areas. Blustery conditions with strong winds and rolling seas are expected.
The competition begins this Sunday (21 March) and concludes next Friday, 26 March.