"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future". Yogi Berra.
Long-range forecasts from numerous sites are being pored over avidly by crews competing in this year's Dun Laoghaire to Dingle Race commencing next Wednesday, June 9th at 1400. The general consensus seems to indicate that the 38-boat fleet (as previewed by WM Nixon here) will encounter 10 to 20-knot southerly veering southwesterly winds over the first 48 hours.
At this stage, there is potentially a temporary veering on Thursday along the south coast that could benefit the larger yachts, but only for a short period as the indication is for lighter winds on the Cork and Kerry coasts. If the winds blow as predicted there is a real chance that the entire race will be a two-sailer for a large portion of the fleet, with nothing abaft the beam currently in the forecast until early on Saturday morning.
"There is a real chance that the entire race will be a two-sailer for a large portion of the fleet"
It is hard to tell how this will impact the fleet - perhaps it will disadvantage the boats that are rigged for asymmetric sailing as there are currently unlikely to be favourable reaching angles. Perhaps the most telling factor might be the tide, particularly as the start time, two hours after high water, means that the big boats are unlikely to round the Tuskar before the second flood, perhaps giving an advantage to the lower-rated boats. It does mean that there will be rock-dodging activity along the Wexford coast in the twilight hours of Wednesday evening as the fleet seeks to avoid the stronger flood offshore.
So at this stage, there seems to be no great rating advantage due to the weather.