17:00 hrs Monday: The Centenary Fastnet Race's enormous fleet is now so well spread out across the Celtic Sea and the western end of the English Channel in a broadly nor'west breeze that the 15 minute position and performance analyses can throw up a remarkable number of potential winners.

AURELIA LEADS CLASS 2

But there's no doubt that for a couple of hours today (Monday) Chris & Patanne Power Smith's J/122 Aurelia (Royal St George YC) was clearly showing as the leader of IRC 2. This suggested that for a significant period she was benefitting from taking the passage close inshore of Land's End inside the TSS, which the vast majority of boats chose to leave to starboard.

With the bulk of IRC Class 2 now closing in on the Fastnet, the top placing guesstimates have become more fluid, but it's notable that ISORA boats such as Aurelia from Dublin Bay and Mojito from Pwllheli have been figuring in and around the top ten on a fairly steady basis which - in a class of 70 international standard boats - is good going.

IRISH ADMIRALS CUP BOATS AT MID-FLEET

In the Admiral's Cup combined classes, Beau Geste for Hong Kong is steady at the front, and overall the Royal Irish duo of the Cookson 50 Privateer and the JPK 1180 Sunrise IV have been having their moments, and are currently at 11th and 14th.

This may seem modest enough, but when we remember that a boat of the calibre of the Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron's Botin 52 Caro (overall winner of the 2023 Fastnet) is indicating as last of the Admiral's Cup boats, we get some idea of the reversals of fortune that can result from racing at this pressurized level.

CHARAL BACK IN FRONT

Up at the front of the fleet, Jeremie Beyou's IMOCA Charal (with Tom Dolan on the strength) has re-taken the class lead in the more favourable offwind conditions, but among the monohulls generally, the hundred footer Black Jack looks to be shaping up well to take advantage of the stronger breezes blowing through the Channel Islands in the approach to Cherbourg.

PYEWACKET-TSCHUSS BATTLE CONTINUES

Johnny Mordaunt and Nin O'Leary and their shipmates on the open Volvo 70 Tschuss 2 relinquished their IRC overall lead for a while, with Roy Disney's higher-rated Pyewacket managing to get sufficiently clear to offset her higher numbers. But margins are so tight as the half dozen leading biggies shape up for their final approach through the complex waters leading to the Cherbourg finish that the top title is up for grabs right to the end.

Meanwhile Pamela Lee with the Class40 #Empowher rounded the Fastnet at 16:40 hrs today and is 16th in Class 40, and Nicole Hemryck and her all-girl crew in the Sunfast 3600 RORC Griffin still have many miles to sail to The Rock, and they're 29th in the 83 boats still racing in IRC 3.