For the first time since the Round Ireland Race start on Saturday, Cavatina does not feature on the leaderboard. Not that Ian Hickey and his team have eased the pressure on his competitors, but it appears that a combination of tacking offshore and a too literal interpretation of the course by the tracking system suggests that Cavatina has further to go than some of her inshore rivals. Before looking at tactics, lets explain the course line issue. The Yellowbrick prediction system works on the distance to go represented by the course line as drawn on the virtual map. Dividing the distance to go by the boat's VMG and multiplying by the time correction factor predicts the corrected time for the race and thus allows a predicted finishing order. However, if, as in this case, the course line does not actually track the rhumb line, then distortion occurs. The actual rhumbline across Donegal Bay is directly from Black Rock lighthouse to Tory Island, but for some reason the tracking system follows the coast more closely, suggesting that the course dips into Donegal Bay, adding distance. thus the boats that stay closer to the rhumb line may appear to have a shorter remaining distance.
The conclusion from all this is not to place too much faith in the tracker, but to look at it in association with the analyses by the pundits, as the tracker will not take into account the wind and tidal conditions.
We have a really close and exciting battle ahead (but only slowly evolving) as the fleet approaches the north coast and the tidal minefield that is the North Channel. Sydney 36 Tanit is now the IRC leader, just ahead of 2012 winner Inis Mor, and these two boats are benefitting from a light patch of wind currently blanketing the chasing pack.
Just going to cover my eyes for a while!! #RoundIreland14 pic.twitter.com/sEZm3U75Yp
— Cavatina Irl3861 (@cavatinaireland) July 1, 2014
