#roundireland14 – In a dramatic change of fortune for the long time Round Ireland Race favourite Cavatina, Liam Shanhan's Ruth, a J/109 class yacht from the National Yacht Club, has taken over as the main contender for the overall prize in this year's Round Ireland race. Cavatina, along with many of the lower rated yachts has sailed in to a calm patch off Belfast Lough and as a result has lost any benefit gained from a favourable tide in the North Channel. With only 45 miles to go at 4am, the forecast suggests that Ruth will enjoy a fairly steady breeze of medium strength for the final fetch to the finish, while those astern will encounter less favourable winds in the last stretch down the Irish Sea.
The effect on Afloat's race predictor is remarkable. None of the lower rated boats feature in the latest prediction, as the 16 knots that Ruth is experiencing now appears to diminish in her wake, effectively creating a block behind her that will hinder the chasing boats. This will favour those boats ahead of Ruth that have finished or will finish before 10am.
So now the final Round Ireland 2014 result might look something like this:
1. Ruth
2. Tanit
3 Inis Mor
4. Fujitsu
5 Phosphorous
6 Arwen
Afloat hesitates to predict beyond this - there may be some surprises left in this race yet.
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