El Niño could have a sudden and chaotic impact on weather patterns right across the globe, a Queen's University Belfast (QUB) climate expert says. An El Niño weather pattern raises global temperatures and worsens rainfall in some regions, and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has predicted an 80 per cent chance of El Niño conditions emerging between June and August this year.
Professor Graeme Swindles, QUB Professor of Physical Geography at Queen’s, says this can cause sudden and chaotic changes in weather conditions. “When these powerful natural climate oscillations combine with the rapid pace of human‑driven warming, the impacts can be sudden, chaotic and severe – from extreme heat to flooding and drought,” he said.
QUB research shows that while the whole planet is changing, the Arctic is transforming at an especially alarming rate and warming several times faster than the global average.
Professor Swindles, who is also Editor-in-Chief of Critical Insights in Climate Change, said that a strong El Niño could “further amplify atmospheric circulation changes that reach the high latitudes, potentially adding even more warmth to an Arctic already undergoing rapid and unprecedented change”.
“This acceleration in the far north is a clear warning that the climate system is becoming more volatile, and societies should be prepared for larger and faster shifts in the years ahead,” he said.
In Ireland, a strong El Niño could lead to milder, wetter winters and potentially greater flood risk, as it can shift the position and strength of the Atlantic jet stream, he said.
