Scientific advice for North-East Atlantic mackerel catches in 2027 has more than doubled, potentially improving the outlook for Ireland's pelagic fleet ahead of international negotiations on next year's fishing opportunities.
The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has advised that catches in 2027 should be no more than 352,938 tonnes, compared with its advice of 174,357 tonnes for 2026 — an increase of just over 102%.
ICES is the intergovernmental marine science organisation whose stock assessments and scientific advice inform European and international negotiations on fishing opportunities and catch limits.
The increase in scientific advice does not mean that Ireland's mackerel quota will double. The eventual Total Allowable Catch (TAC) and Ireland's share will depend on international negotiations between the parties involved in the fishery and subsequent EU decisions on fishing opportunities.
Blue Whiting and Herring Advice Also Rises
The latest scientific advice also points to increased catches for two other pelagic stocks of importance to the Irish fleet.
ICES advice for blue whiting has increased to 1,064,191 tonnes, while advice for Norwegian spring-spawning, or Atlanto-Scandian, herring has risen to 588,004 tonnes for 2027.
The mackerel increase follows a particularly difficult period for Ireland's pelagic sector. ICES's advice for 2026 represented a major reduction from the previous year, amid continuing concern over catches by non-EU coastal states.
Ireland's 2026 fishing opportunities were subsequently hit by reduced quotas and the blocking of its attempt to apply Hague Preferences for mackerel and other stocks at the December EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council.
Afloat reported at the time that Ireland faced sharply reduced fishing opportunities for 2026, with the mackerel issue among the principal concerns for the Irish fleet.
The Hague Preferences are a long-standing mechanism within EU fisheries arrangements intended to provide additional protection for Ireland when quotas for certain important stocks fall below specified levels. Ireland successfully secured their application to mackerel for the first time for the 2025 fishing year.
Afloat reported on that first application of the mackerel Hague Preference in December 2024.
Mullooly Says Irish Allocation Still Uncertain
Independent Ireland MEP Ciaran Mullooly welcomed the improved scientific advice but cautioned against interpreting the 102% increase as a corresponding increase in Ireland's quota.
“This is encouraging news for Killybegs and Ireland's pelagic sector, but the 102% figure needs to be understood properly,” Mullooly said.
“It does not mean there are 102% more mackerel in the sea and it does not mean Ireland automatically receives 102% more quota. It means the scientific advice on what can sustainably be caught in 2027 has increased.”
Mullooly said that if the new advice were translated proportionately using Ireland's current share, it could indicate an allocation of about 22,000 tonnes.
However, that figure is an estimate rather than an agreed Irish quota, with the 2027 allocation not due to be established until the international and EU negotiations are completed.
Mullooly said Ireland should again seek the application of the Hague Preferences during the negotiations, arguing that the Irish fleet had been particularly affected by the decline in mackerel fishing opportunities.
The latest ICES advice therefore represents a substantially improved scientific starting point for 2027, but the scale of any resulting increase for Irish fishermen remains dependent on the negotiations over the coming months.

















































