"Time and tide will wait for no man, saith the adage. But all men have to wait for time and tide." Charles Dickens
As Dun Laoghaire Dingle Race day dawns, the skippers and navigators check the forecast for the umpteenth time. Predictions have been relatively steady for a few days, suggesting that there may be no change to the forecasted headwinds that will prevail, at least as far as the Fastnet. If the wind is as predicted, the need to get the tide right comes into sharper focus as the yachts head down the Irish Sea to the first turning mark, the Tuskar Rock lighthouse, which guards the southeast corner of Ireland.
These first 70 nautical miles will probably influence the eventual outcome as it has done before both in D2Ds and Round Ireland races. The importance of this stretch of the race is due to the strong tidal currents that define the area, squeezing the water between the offshore banks and the coast at rates that can exceed 4 knots at spring tides. Although not the highest spring tide of the month, the streams that the fleet will encounter are stronger than average. Starting two hours into the ebb, the navigators will want to stay out in the stronger stream, but will need to choose carefully when to head inshore as the flood tide starts to build. The bigger boats will likely be past Wicklow head when the flood starts, possibly rock dodging along the coast. It gets complicated inshore not only due to the presence of the Rusk, Glassgorman and Blackwater Banks, but also because Met Eireann's wind barb forecast suggests the breeze lightens closer to the coast.
"Met Eireann's wind barb forecast suggests the breeze lightens closer to the coast"
As the leading boats emerge from the Irish Sea around midnight Wednesday and settle for a long beat to Fastnet, it could well be that the winner will emerge from amongst those who have best timed their move inshore to dodge the flood tide along the Wicklow and Wexford coasts. This doesn't mean the end of the race for the smaller craft, indeed those who manage to round the Tuskar on the second ebb could well save their time on the big boats.