Blue skies and a cold northerly breeze greeted the fleets in Kinsale Harbour yesterday as the Kinsale Yacht Club Frostbite Series got underway. RO John Stallard assembled his usual crack team to ensure that the racing is top notch. Bruce & June Matthews, integral parts of the team, also kindly provided the Committee Boat and lunch, so we were very comfortable and well looked after aboard Destiny. Three fleets participated - Squibs, Mixed Dinghies and Toppers and racing got under way at 11.03hrs.

Race 1 got underway with 8 – 9 knots of breeze and gusts up to 18 knots. The Northerly breeze ensured that there was no swell and made for ideal sailing conditions. In the Squib Fleet Fuggles with Jeff Condell and Jeff Cochrane dominated from the first beat in Race 1 with Fifty Shades, Cliodhna O’Regan and Colm Daly and Allegro, Colm Dunne and Fiona Ward battling out for 2nd and 3rd. However things changed significantly in Race 2 with Fifty Shades leading from the start with two newcomers to the fleet Outlaw, Ian Travers and Keith O’Riordan and Badger, Rob Doyle and Rob Gill taking 2nd and 3rd respectively. An ebbing tide and lighter breeze made for interesting times at the windward mark I believe. Race 3 started with a slightly lighter breeze of 6 – 7 knots and the ebb in full flow. Fifty Shades again lead the pack with Allegro coming 2nd and Outlaw in 3rd. Only 1 point now separates each of the 2nd to 5th placings so it looks like discards could play a huge part in the overall Squib results. Protests are pending in the Squib Fleet on Race 2 so an update may be posted next week.

The Topper Fleet also welcomed some new members today and for some it was their first time racing in the fleet. Well done to Dorothy Matthews who got 1st place in all three races. Daniel Akerlind came 2nd in Race 1 & 2 and Rachel Akerlind got a 3rd in Race 1, and it was her first time racing. Francesca Lewis put in a very steady performance, her results improved with each race and she came 2nd in Race 3. Frances Corkery also had a good day with 3rd place in Races 2 & 3. Max Dillon got a 4th in Race 1 so well done to him. A big shout out to Harvey Matthews who at only 9 year of age came out in a slightly modified rig Topper, unfortunately he didn’t race as the 18 knot gusts were too strong for him. There are protests pending in the Topper Fleet also so updates next week after they are held.

The Mixed Dinghy Fleet consisted of a Full Rig Laser, Radial Laser, 4.7 Laser, 420 and 2.4m and they sailed under PY. Line honours went to the 420, Micheal O’Suilleabhain and Michael Carroll, in Races 1 & 3 with Master Laser sailor Gary Horgan taking it in Race 2. Well sailed Gary. Sean Collins in the Radial put in a very consistent performance and was over the line in 3rd for all three races. This was enough to put him in 2nd overall on corrected time. David Carter, 4.7 Laser and Georgina Griffin, 2.4m, were 4th and 5th respectively.

Many thanks to Bruce & June Matthews for sponsoring the day prize – all participants in the racing are entered into a draw and today’s winner was Micheal O’Suilleabhain.
 
Results: 1st 2nd 3rd
Squib
Race 1 Fuggles Fifty Shades Allegro
Race 2 Fifty Shades Outlaw Badger
Race 3 Fifty Shades Allegro Outlaw
Toppers
Race 1 D. Matthews D. Akerlind R. Akerlind
Race 2 D. Matthews D. Akerlind F. Corkery
Race 3 D. Matthews F. Lewis F. Corkery
Mixed Dinghies
Race 1 420 Laser Laser Radial
Race 2 Laser Radial Laser 420
Race 3 420 Laser Radial Laser

Kinsale Yacht Club will start its Frostbite Series on Sunday, February 4. This will be raced over six Sundays until March 11, writes Tom MacSweeney. Registration will take place on the opening day. First Gun each Sunday will be at 1055. 

Kinsale Marina Berth Holders

There will be a meeting of berth holders of Kinsale YC on Thursday, February 22, at 8 p.m. in the clubhouse.

Finbarr O’Regan’s Artful Dodger Photo: Bob Bateman

Tom Roche Wins Bell Trophy 

Tom Roche’s Meridian won the St.Stephen’s Day cruiser race at Kinsale Yacht Club for the Gunsmoke Bell. Michael Carroll’s Chancer was second and Finbarr O’Regan’s Artful Dodger third.

Kinsale Yacht Club has its annual ‘Gunsmoke Bell’ race scheduled for St.Stephen’s Day. First Gun will be fired to start the race at 1325 on the Charles Fort Line. It will be an All-In Race under the ECHO handicap system writes Tom MacSweeney.

“A great way to work off those mince pieces,” the club says, encouraging those with their boats still in the water to take part in this cruiser race.

The event is sponsored by Sam Cohen, whose own boat is named Gunsmoke.

Otherwise racing has ceased on the South Coast until the hardy Frostbite sailors get going in the New Year. Kinsale will kick off its Frostbite Series on February 4 and it will continue until March 11.

The club has been early into the organisation of cruiser racing for next year and has secured sponsorship of its Spring Series by Matthews and Helly Hansen. Racing is scheduled over four weekends for both White Sail and Spinnaker fleets. The series will start on Sunday, April 8 and finish on Saturday, April 28. There will be two days of windward/leeward courses and two of ‘round the cans’ according to the Notice of Race. Racing will be under both IRC and ECHO handicap systems. Entry fee is €80 for Spinnaker boats and €60 for White Sail. This will also be the opening event of the SCORA - South Coast Offshore Racing Association - series for next year. Already the warning is out to boat owners to ensure they register their vessels and provide racing certificates - “No registration, no certificates, no result,” says the club. Registration will be on Sunday, April 8, prior to the first race, from 9 to 10.30 a.m. in the club house. First gun will be at 1155 each day.

Kinsale will host the Round Britain and Ireland Race, the Yachting World Triangular Race, the Squib Southerns, Optimist Nationals, Dragon Southerns and the Mini Transat Series next year. It will be a busy administrative and organisational year at the club.

Georgina Griffin has been chosen as Club Member of the Year. She was amongst members presented with ‘Sailing Excellence Awards’ by the club for their performances in national and international events this year. The awards went to: RORC Fastnet Race, Cian McCarthy, EOS; Lough Derg Freshwater Championships, Colm Dunne and Fiona Ward, Allegro; All Ireland Junior Sailing Championships Schull, Micheal O’Suilleabhain and Michael Carroll, TR 3.6m double-handed; Europeans 2017 (Poland), Georgina Griffin, 2.4mR.

The Irish Quarter Ton fleet will be getting a new addition this Autumn with the arrival of the very distinctive and well known Quarter Tonner, Runaway Bus writes Bob Bateman

Kinsale Yacht Club's Alan Mulcahy has bought the 1977–vintage craft made famous in part for her spinnaker that is emblazoned with a printed London Bus, all of which is complemented by her gleaming red hull & white decks.

The news will be welcomed by Kinsale's Quarter–Ton interests that saw the Ed-Dubois designed Diamond arrive into the port last March.  

According to a broker description, The 40–year–old Runaway Bus was built for Mike Richardson, the owner of Seahorse Sails. Built to the same lines as the winner of the 1976 Quarter Ton Cup at Corpus Christi, she was designed by Paul Whiting & in 2006 she was fully re-built by David Heritage in Cowes with new structure & deck, new rig, keel, rudder & systems which left her looking as new. She is still in excellent condition & remains very competitive having won the Jersery Regatta in 2015, come 2nd in the IRC Small Boat Regatta in 2014, 3rd in the Poole Regatta in both 2016 & 2014 as well as 2nd in class & 4th overall in 2014 Round the Island Race. She comes very well equipped with Tak-Tik Wireless instruments & a comprehensive sail wardrobe.

It is understood Runaway Bus will arrive into Kinsale next week but thought unlikely the 23–footer will be ready in time to enter the currently underway CH Marine Autumn League at nearby Crosshaven. Race reports here.

The second day of racing at the Dragon South Coast Championships has been cancelled at Kinsale Yacht Club following two one hour postponements this morning writes Bob Bateman.

Race Officer Alan Crosbie went out in a RIB to inspect the course area. Fog and mist early on gave way to only a zephyr of breeze leaving no option but to scrub the two scheduled races. 

The cancellation means Kinsale's Cameron Good takes the championship title as per Afloat.ie's report here.

Mark Mansfield, tactician on The Big Picture, fourth overall at August's Euro Car Parks Half Ton Classic Cup 2017, reviews progress in the Class and the Kinsale Yacht Club event.

Having done the last two versions of this event I feel I have a decent level of knowledge to comment on the racing and the classes progression. Firstly well done to the organisers for staging a great event at Kinsale Yacht Club and well done to the Principal Race Officer Anthony O'Leary for running it so well. Finally, well done to Phil Plumtree and the Swuzzlebubble team for winning the regatta with a race to spare. This is the third win for Swuzzlebubble in three events, each with a different owner. More about this later.

Mike and Richie Evans's The Big Picture, from Howth Yacht Club was fourth overall. Tactician and article author Mark Mansfield is wearing the white cap Photo: Bob Bateman

Day One—Nigel Biggs' new Checkmate XV111 just led from Paul Pullen's Miss Whiplash on countback. Swuzzlebubble lay one point back and Mike and Richie Evans,The Big Picture, lay a further point behind. David Cullen's Checkmate XV was a few points further back and it seemed likely that these five boats would be the feature boats in the event. All had professional sailors aboard and one of these boats had three professional sailors. Swuzzlebubble had an eighth place on this day which she would eventually discard but it was clear that she would be the one to watch as she was the top rating boat by some margin and was using that extra speed to get out in front allowing her to sail her own race.

Phil Plumtree's Swuzzlebubble had an eighth place on day one but it was clear that she would be the one to watch as she was the top rating boat by some margin Photo: Bob Bateman

Day Two—Strong Southerly winds were forecasted for the following few days and so the organisers took the decision to delay the coastal race until later in the week and use day two to get in as many short WL races as possible. In the end four good races were sailed in moderate to fresh testing conditions. Swuzzlebubble counted two wins and two second places to shoot into a large lead over David Cullen's Checkmate who also scored two firsts. One point back was Checkmate XVIII and The Big Picture lay in fourth, a few points back. Big loser of the Day was Paul Pullen's Miss Whiplash who had four very average results and fell out of the running. It was now clear that the first four boats (Swuzzlebubble, Checkmate XV, Checkmate XVIII and the Big Picture) were pulling well clear of the pack and the winner would be from this group. Occasionally, other boats such as Paul Wayte's beautiful newly optimised Headhunter, Johnny Swan's Harmony and Philippe Pilatte's General Tapioca would come to the fore, but it was the first four that generally filled the top three results in each race and were pulling well clear.

Paul Pullen's Miss Whiplash had four very average results on day two and fell out of the running Photo: Bob Bateman

Day Three—Wednesday was postponed due to excess wind and many enjoyed a long lunch in Kinsale's Fishy Fishy restaurant accompanied by some very nice wines.

Day Four—Strong Southerly winds greeted the competitors and three races were planned including the none–discard coastal race. Swuzzlebubble took a first and a second in the earlier Windward Leeward races to extend her lead and the two closest followers, the two Checkmates each counted a poorish race to allow Swuzzlebubble be on the cusp of winning the regatta outright if she had a decent last coastal race. The Big Picture had consistent top results to lie in fourth. The final race of the day, the coastal race, ended in Swuzzlebubble taking a fifth, though a relatively poor result for her, it was enough to ensure Swuzzlebubble could not now be caught and did not need to sail the final race on the Friday.  1.5 points now separated the Two Checkmates with Dave Cullen in the marginal lead. Big Picture finished the Coastal race in second place and lay in fourth overall and could neither fall to fifth in the last race on Friday, nor get up to third. There was then a large points gap to General Tapioca and Headhunter.

Only 1.5 points separated the two Checkmates with Dave Cullen's Checkmate XV (below) in the marginal lead. Photos Bob Bateman

A successful Class dinner was held in Actons Hotel on Thursday night which went on late into the night, for some.

Day Five—Swuzzlebubble decided not to sail on the Friday. First and fourth places were already finalised (Swuzzlebubble and The Big Picture). Nigel Biggs needed to finish ahead of Dave Cullen and have a boat between them to finish in second overall. 17 to 20 knots greeted the fleet and PRO O'Leary signalled an around the buoys race consisting of two rounds and a finish off Charles Fort in Kinsale. Nigel Biggs got the best of the start and was ahead most of the race. However, Dave Cullen was in a bunch close behind that included the Big Picture. By the last mark Nigel Biggs rounded in the lead, followed by three other boats flowed by Big Picture with Checkmate XV behind her. Big Picture pulled through to second and Checkmate XV to third across the line. Big Picture with her lower handicap had a chance to snatch the win and deny Checkmate XVIII second overall but fell short by nine seconds and so the race finished with Checkmate XVIII winning followed by The Big Picture, followed by Checkmate XV, thus giving second overall to Nigel Biggs and Third overall to David Cullen. Fourth overall went to the Big Picture, fifth to General Tapioca and sixth to Miss Whiplash.

Half Ton racing is excellent, very close. The camaraderie within the class is also very strong

Progression of the class – Three newly optimised boats were among the 21 entries this year. The larger fleets of Half–Tonners are based in France, the UK and Belgium and if the event were in one of these locations it is likely entries would be closer to 30. During the regatta an agm was held to discuss some important points that appear to be affecting the class. These were;

1 Should the class limit the number of professionals on each boat
2 Should the class, like they do in the Quarter ton Class, put an upper handicap limit on yachts taking part.
3 Should the class allow asymmetrical spinnakers.

1—Limiting professionals. A poll of Half Ton members will likely be done to either limit the professionals on each boat to either one or Two. It was felt generally that professionals help to coach the crew and generally are good for the class, but too many and the professionals can effectively sail the boat themselves, thus little improvement happens when the pros depart.

2—Limiting the upper Handicap limit. Swuzzlebubble has been a problem child in this class since Peter Morton did a no–expenses spared restoration of this very long half tonner. This included a taller, ultra high Modulus Carbon Rig with more sail, a deeper keel and other top mods. This led to her being approx. 25–points higher rating than most. Consequently she can go for a conservative start, sail for a few minutes and then her speed allows her to cross the fleet and sail the remainder of the race without other interference. The remainder of the fleet are close on rating and end up very close to each other at all marks, taking wind on downwinds, etc. This is costing the bulk of the fleet a minute or more per race, and often that is about the margin that Swuzzlebubble wins by. She is being well sailed, but she has a great advantage. In the Quarter ton class they stopped this issue early and now most quarter tonners are within 10 points of rating of each other. It is being suggested that an upper limit of .965 be introduced. Swuzzlebubble would be able to get to this by reducing sail area and adding some weight which would lessen the advantage she currently enjoys, especially in light to medium conditions. A proposed poll of the class is being organised on this.

3—Allowing Asymmetric sails. This appeared not to be so straight forward. Some owners already have them (but can't use them at the Half Ton Cup). Allowing them might mean owners have to buy one or two asymmetric kites, perhaps add a sprit and in the end may not even use them at a Half Ton cup. Others would prefer to stay without them as most of the racing is windward leeward anyway. This will also be balloted.

Summary – Having sailed four Quarter Ton Cups and now two Half Ton cups, The Half Ton class is now easily as competitive as the quarter tonners. The racing is excellent, very close. The camaraderie within the class is very strong. I can see more restorations being done in this class and numbers rising for their Half Ton Cups. Next years event will be in Nieuwpoort in Belgium in mid–August and I suspect that there may be up to 30–boats will arrive for that. The inaugural IRC World Championships is being held just up the road in The Hague in Holland a month before the Half Ton worlds so there are many half–tonners considering doing that as well as a warm up event. The boats are of a size that they can, if required, be transported by water, though most will trail behind jeeps.

Mark Mansfield is a four–time Irish Olympian, a helmsman in the Star Class from 1992–2004. He is a World Sailing 'Group 3' Sailor.

With the overall regatta decided on the penultimate day, the Euro Car Parks Half Ton Classics Cup was presented to Phil Plumtree and the crew of Swuzzlebubble at Kinsale Yacht Club, Ireland on Friday night.

A single ‘round the cans’ final race earlier in the day also delivered a full eleven race programme despite losing a day to strong winds.

Swuzzlebubble’s series ended on Thursday after ten races of mostly first and second places confirmed their pre-event favourite status and this year’s win is the third victory in the 40-year old boat’s modern record adding to previous wins with Peter Morton and Greg Peck.

The battle for second place went down to the wire and the outcome of the eleventh race which was won by Nigel Biggs on Checkmate XVIII and he succeeded in beating David Cullen on Checkmate XV by a half point margin to take the first runner-up place.

The Half Ton True Spirit trophy, the other major award for the week was presented to Paul Wayte and the crew of Headhunter in recognition of their camaraderie within the fleet both afloat and ashore but especially for their sportsmanship. Wayte loaned a spare mast to Superhero after their own rig was badly damaged en route to Ireland that enabled the Finnish entry to start the regatta last weekend.

Tributes were paid to Principal Race Officer Anthony O’Leary and Regatta Director John Stallard of Kinsale YC with their team of volunteers who delivered a memorable series.

Class President Philippe Pilate on General Tapioca was best of the continental entries in fifth overall in the 21-strong turnout. At the prize-giving ceremony, he confirmed that the 2018 championship will be held at the Royale Koninklijke Yacht Club (KYCN), Nieuwpoort in Belgium from the 20th to 24th August where a team of volunteers are already planning a week of great racing and hospitality.

EURO CAR PARKS HALF TON CLASSICS CUP 2017 (at Kinsale YC, Ireland)

Final overall standings after Day 5 - eleven races (21 entries)

1 Swuzzlebubble Phil Plumtree (UK)
2 Checkmate XVIII Nigel Biggs (UK)
3 Checkmate XV Dave Cullen (Ireland)
4 The Big Picture Michael & Richard Evans (Ireland)
5 General Tapioca Philippe Pilate (Belgium)
6 Miss Whiplash Paul Pullen (UK)

Phil Plumtree’s Swuzzlebubble found form on the second day of racing at the Euro Car Parks Half Ton Classics Cup at Kinsale Yacht Club with two wins and two second places during a long day afloat sailed in ideal conditions.

While there was a building breeze of 12 to 20 knots ending in champagne sailing conditions for day two, a near gale forecast for Wednesday morning may yet mean a lay day is on the cards and a break in the programme could be the best hope for a tight pack of runner-up contenders to break Plumtree’s dominance of the 21-boat fleet.

Two race wins for Dave Cullen's Checkmate XV puts him into second overall. Photo: Bob Bateman. Scroll down the page for gallery

Nigel Biggs on Checkmate XVIII is third overall. Photo: Bob Bateman. Scroll down the page for gallery

Two bullets for David Cullen on Checkmate XV edges him into second overall, five points behind Swuzzlebubble and just a single point ahead of Nigel Biggs on Checkmate XVIII, the previous overnight leader. A consistent day for Mike and Ritchie Evans’ The Big Picture, Cullen’s clubmates from Howth, Co. Dublin keeps them in the hunt in fourth overall and just ten points off the leader.

Mike Evans in The Big Picture (blue spinnaker) is fourth Photo: Bob Bateman. Scroll down the page for gallery

On the water, Swuzzlebubble’s impressive upwind performance is hard to miss and although needing to finish by more than a minute and a half over her nearest rival to win on IRC handicap, Plumtree’s team is absent from the boat on boat tussle for places further astern.

Swuzzlebubble – quick upwind. Photo: Bob Bateman. Scroll down the page for gallery

Rollercoaster results across the two days afflicted several crews, notably Paul Pullen’s Miss Whiplash who lost his consistent form of thirds and fourth places from Monday and Paul Wayte’s Headhunter who used both the event discards to drop eleventh and twelfth places.

Class President Philippe Pilatte on General Tapioca also used both discards but also scored a third and fourth places to move up the leaderboard to fifth overall though a distant 19 points off first place.

Meanwhile the forecast of strong winds for Wednesday and possibly again later in the week led Principal Race Officer Anthony O’Leary to set four races for the day with three windward/leeward courses followed by a ‘round the cans’ race finishing inside Kinsale natural harbour overlooked by the historic Charles Fort.

The possibility of the gale blowing through by lunchtime on Wednesday has not been discounted and the intention to hold a coastal course remains - pending a decision by the race committee in the morning. The longer race offers 1.5x multiplier and could prove critical in deciding the final outcome of the championship.

EURO CAR PARKS HALF TON CLASSICS CUP 2017 (at Kinsale YC, Ireland)
Top six overall standings after Day 2 - seven races (21 entries)

1 Swuzzlebubble Phil Plumtree (UK)
2 Checkmate XV Dave Cullen (Ireland)
3 Checkmate XVIII Nigel Biggs (UK)
4 The Big Picture Michael & Richard Evans (Ireland)
5 General Tapioca Philippe Pilatte (Belgium)
6 Miss Whiplash Paul Pullen (UK)

Nigel Biggs on his newly-refurbished Checkmate XVIII leads the Euro Car Parks Half Ton Classics Cup at Kinsale Yacht Club after a rain-soaked opening day but only two points separate first to fourth places.

Although Phil Plumtree’s two-times past champion Swuzzlebubble had impressive leads on the water, IRC handicapping greatly levelled the playing-field and the iconic Kiwi yacht by designer Bruce Farr could only muster a win in the opening race before scoring second and eighth places for the rest of the day and lies third overall.

In contrast, Biggs had two fourth places and a second while Paul Pullen’s Miss Whiplash had a 3-3-4 day and only missed being overnight leader on the tie-break with Checkmate XVIII.

Of the host nation, a win in the third race for Howth Yacht Club’s Michael and Ritchie Evans on The Big Picture transformed their day after earlier sixth and fifth places. Fourth overall puts them two points ahead of their clubmate David Cullen on Checkmate XV who also had a race win to counter and eighth and a fifth during the day.

“Before the first race, I thought it would be easy to pick the eventual winner but after today I’m not so sure,” Cullen said. “The standard is definitely much higher and probably the most competitive half-ton fleet we have seen in years.”

Of the conditions, the only dryness were the remarks by visitors of the irony that the committee boat’s name is ‘Irish Mist’ on a soaking wet day with a moderate breeze that built to 20 knots by the final race. Principal Race Officer Anthony O’Leary promised quick windward-leeward races of under an hour and a 0.8-mile beat ensured a fast programme.

The prospect of clear skies and breeze for Day 2 will see another three windward-leeward races in place of the planned coastal race as near gale conditions forecast for Wednesday may disrupt the event programme.

The fleet has been reduced by one boat as Superhero by owned Toni Stoschek and Janne Tulokas was dismasted in race two. The class had previously rallied to ensure Finnish crew would make the start-line after their original mast was wrecked when a HGV reversed into it while waiting to board a ferry in Holyhead.

The Half Ton spirit is especially in the mind of class President Philippe Pilatte of General Tapioca, currently lying seventh overall. “With a good team and good sails, it is possible to race a 40-year old boat competitively,” he said. “It’s all part of the history of yacht racing and keeping it alive; it is ‘competition with roots.’” Feeding back information to the IRC Rating office to help older boats remain competitive with modern designs is also a class priority.

EURO CAR PARKS HALF TON CLASSICS CUP 2017 (at Kinsale YC, Ireland)
Top six overall standings after Day 1 - three races (21 entries)
1 Checkmate XVIII Nigel Biggs (UK)
2 Miss Whiplash Paul Pullen (UK)
3 Swuzzlebubble Phil Plumtree (UK)
4 The Big Picture Michael & Richard Evans (Ireland)
5 Checkmate XV Dave Cullen (Ireland)
6 Headhunter Paul Wayte (UK)

As the 21-strong fleet (just two down from expectations in March) for the Euro Car Parks Half Ton Classics Cup at Kinsale Yacht Club prepares for race one this morning, a race against time has been ongoing since Friday to ensure one boat would make the start.

Finland’s Toni Stoschek and Janne Tulokas were en route to Ireland with Superhero earlier in the week when an articulated lorry accidentally reversed into their mast while queuing for the ferry crossing.

The badly bent spar was beyond salvage or repair and for a time it seemed the journey to Ireland would be wasted.

However, the class rallied and the hunt began for a replacement. In a major logistical operation, a spare mast was loaned by King One and transported by Nigel Biggs of Checkmate XVIII by road across the UK and travelled by ferry to Rosslare where it was collected by Paul Cullen of Miss Whiplash, arriving in Kinsale on Saturday morning.

By Sunday’s practice race, Superhero was just able to make the starting-line after some rig tuning. “We hope that we can mix it up with the best despite our… slow start,” said Stoschek.

Conditions at Kinsale are expected to deliver a full range of wind for the coming five days, from light airs to near gale at times. Three windward-leeward races per day are planned while the coastal race intended for Tuesday may be amended to ensure a full race programme is completed.

Phil Plumtree’s Swuzzlebubble is the pre-regatta following on two previous title wins though three new boats and an increasingly competitive fleet could yet upset the running-order.