There is consensus it will be a fast one, but much debate about what type of boat will win this afternoon's 30th-anniversary IRC handicap Volvo Dun Laoghaire Dingle Race.

One theory emerging from last night's pre-race briefing at the National Yacht Club is that the 270-mile race is all downwind, so the winning edge could boil down to the use of either symmetric or asymmetric spinnaker sails that could bring the line hours winner home in 24 hours.

If that transpires, it will break the course record of 24 hours and 28 minutes set by Mick Cotter's 93ft Windfall in 2019.

12-1: Pete Smyth's Searcher arrives at Dingle in the 2021 race under asymmetric spinnaker. She has switched to symmetric for the 2023 race Photo: Dominick Walsh

Asymmetric v Symmetric sails

Tuesday night's well-attended pow-wow heard it could be a battle between the boats flying symmetric kites that can pole back and surf in the big breeze to steer dead downwind and sail the shortest distance against those fast asymmetric boats that can truly plane downwind, such as the two potent canting keelers.

Examples of potent symmetric boats in these conditions are former D2D champion JPK 10.80 Rockabill VI, the defending champion, the Grand Soleil 40 Nieulargo, Northern Ireland's First 40.7 Game Changer (second in last month's Scottish Series), the host club's Sunfast 3600 Searcher and Royal Cork J122 Jelly Baby that has recently been converted to symmetrical kite.

Royal Cork J122 Jelly Baby has recently been converted to symmetrical kite Photo: Afloat

Fast planing asymmetric boat examples in the fleet are restricted to the two canting keelers, the Cookson 50 Privateer, the new Elliot, Opal from Greystones Harbour, plus the Welsh J125 flying machine, Jackknife.

14-1: Welsh J125 entry Jackknife under her Code Zero asymmetric sail in an ISORA race from Dublin Bay Photo: Afloat

But this hypothesis dismisses the bulk of some of the fleet's strong performers that are asymmetric displacement boats which, the theorists say, will need to sail much more distance if the breeze is dead downwind.

Whatever the modelling, the reality on the race course is often a completely different kettle of fish, and the battle will most likely be settled by the angle of the wind over the next 24 hours. 

So Afloat asked Mystic Meg (at 6 am on June 7th) for what she predicts lies in store for the fleet, and her unofficial odds are at the bottom of this article.

Race Chairman Adam Winkelmann and National Yacht Club, who spoke about the race to Afloat's Wavelength podcast here) and Commodore Peter Sherry welcomed competitors and sponsors to the 15th race, which has attracted a 42-boat fleet. See Afloat's race preview here.

At the 2023 Volvo Dun Laoghaire to Dingle Race, briefing in the National Yacht Club was (from left to right) Alan Crowley, MD of Volvo Cars Ireland, Peter Sherry,  Commodore of the NYC and Adam Winkelmann, Race Chairman Photo: Michael Chester

Race Officer Con Murphy covered the start and finish, safety procedures and rules governing shipping Traffic Separation Schemes (TSS) that proved controversial in 2021 when five boats were penalised for sailing in the Tuskar TSS, which is prohibited in the race rules. Download his safety briefing below.

Volvo Dun Laoghaire to Dingle Race Officer Con Murphy addresses the competitors before the 2 pm Wednesday start from Dun Laoghaire Harbour Photo: Michael Chester

Kenny Rumball of the Offshore Racing Academy gave his latest update on the race weather forecast. Download his briefing below.

Kenny Rumball of the Offshore Racing Academy gave his latest update on the D2D race weather forecast Photo: Michael Chester

Rumball predicts an NNE sea breeze to start on Wednesday at 2 pm that will back during the afternoon as the fleet heads down the east coast, and he is expecting the breeze to build. 

A live webcam of the start area is here.

He expects the wind to veer for the south coast early Thursday morning. 

In essence, once the fleet exits Dublin Bay, it may be a square run downwind to Wicklow and on to the Tuskar, then another square run from Tuskar right along the south coast to the Fastnet Rock.

By the time the fleet reaches the Fastnet, they can expect winds up to 35 knots. 

Once around Fastnet, as the leaders go north, there will be less breeze, and the wind will likely go forward.

And who will be leading at that point? Nobody knows for sure, but that has not stopped Afloat's Mystic Meg from making some predictions.

Afloat's Mystic Meg D2D Odds  

It seems like a big boat race based on current wind and tide predictions (6 am, June 7th). Tuskar Rock rounding times will better indicate who has avoided the north-going flood, but those who can hit double-figure speeds down the east coast will have a distinct advantage.

The two canting keelers will have to post a time in Dingle and hope lighter winds in the final approaches will shut the door on the chasing pack. 

Another critical distinction is the symmetric v asymmetric downwind sails as outlined above - As the wind veers on the south coast, it may favour the symmetric boats with their ability to sail deeper.

Meg says the winner will emerge from the chasing pack of higher-rated boats, so the odds are as follows:

• 12/1 Rockabill VI, Searcher
• 13/1 Checkmate XX, Ghost Raider, Blaoga, Mynx, Prime Suspect, Marco Polo, Game Changer
• 14/1 Jackknife, Samatom, Black Magic, Gelert, Alpaca, JellyBaby, May Contain Nuts, Hot Cookie, Cinnamon Girl, Nieulargo, 
• 15/1 Opal, Privateer, WOW, Meridian
• 25/1 The Field