#roundireland – While the official tracker has Inis Mor as the overall leader in the 2012 Round Ireland Race, it's going to be a nail biting few hours for the French boat.
As of 3pm, Inis Mor has 30.6 miles to go. To beat Tonnerre she needs to cover that distance in five hours and 34 minutes. Simple math says she needs to average 5.49 knots and as she is making 5.7 knots just south of Lambay Island, it should work for her.
But, the 5.7 knots is not quite in the right direction – because the wind has headed her, she can only make 221° instead of the 190° she needs to reach Wicklow on one tack. So while 5.7 knots looks good, her actual progress towards the finish or VMG, is currently 5.4 knots – just outside the 5.49 knots needed.
To make matters worse, she is entering an area of stronger tides that will be directly against her for the last few hours into Wicklow. She can mitigate some of this by hugging the coast, but at what cost windwise?
Fascinating stuff, www.afloat.ie's money's on Tonnerre, at least in this battle. Keep an eye on Cavatina though – she still has a day left to win!