As of Tuesday 16th September, the Flying Fifteens' Championship of Ireland has attracted an entry of 25 boats from nine clubs, five northern and four southern. Sail numbers range from 3706 (National Yacht Club) to the newest boat in the fleet 4138 (Flying Fifteen Chonamara), the latter being close to the newest boat in the World. Dun Laoghaire's National Yacht Club boats the biggest entry, as befits the biggest fleet in the country with fourteen boats, while Strangford Sailing Club, (NI), Carrickfergus Sailing Club (NI), County Antrim Yacht Club (NI), Killyleagh (NI), Strangford Lough Yacht Club (NI) and Waterford Harbour Sailing Club (RoI) each have a solitary entry. In between these two extremes of participation, we find Royal St. George Yacht Club with three entries and Flying Fifteen Chonamara with two entries.
Scheduled for three days at the end of this week, the event will be hosted by the National Yacht Club with a first gun at 13:55 on Friday and subsequent starts on Saturday and Sunday of 11:55 and 10:55 respectively (as per WhatsApp notification).
So, how to guess what the result might be!
David Gorman & Chris Doorly
I could look at the Dublin Bay Sailing Club Series, as this is a home "game" for the DL fraternity, and project that David Gorman & Chris Doorly (4099), who have run away with the Saturday Series, must be in the frame on their home waters. Likewise, the Thursday Series was a close call in the end with Neil Colin & Margaret Casey (4028) winning a tight series with Peter Murphy & Ciara Mulvey (3774) in close pursuit. But I seem to recall visitors winning major events in Dublin Bay, with the Kennedys, Peter and his daughter picking up a major trophy here. Peter (4134) has Stephen Kane at the sharp end of the boat this weekend and on the basis of being the highest placed "Irish-flagged" Flying Fifteen at the recent Worlds in Weymouth, 19th, if memory serves, this surely must be a valid parameter of potential success.
Neil Colin & Margaret Casey
But this year, due regard must be given to those we haven't seen on the water in Dun Laoghaire, and two combinations immediately come to mind. We haven't seen Shane McCarthy (4116) all summer long, but he has entered with Hugh McNally, who most recently sailed the Fireball Worlds in Lake Garda, in a 136-boat fleet.
Shane McCarthy
Another, partially absent combination, is Ian Mathews and Keith Poole (4093). We have seen lots of Keith, sailing successfully with Tom Galvin, but Ian's work keeps him away for large periods of time.
Ian Mathews and Keith Poole
Phil Lawton & Neil O'Hagan (3803) were late entries to the Worlds in Weymouth and are entered for this regatta, but as per the aforementioned combination, they haven't done much domestic sailing in DL other than the Volvo Regatta.
Phil Lawton & Neil O'Hagan
The crews from the West must also be put into the melting pot of combinations that could occupy a podium spot. Niall & Ronan O'Briain (4093) are getting stiff competition from their clubmates Dermot Flaherty & Brendan Mac Donnacha (4138) and neither should be discounted from consideration of where the top places might go.
Sean Craig and Alan Green
And, without fail, there is a new combination at this regatta, who broke the ice last Saturday in blustery conditions as a precursor to racing the Nationals. Sean Craig has teamed up with Alan Green (4026) to "give it a lash", with Alan moving forward in the boat to accommodate the multi-title ILCA6 winner on the helm. Of course, Sean does have pedigree in this class as well.
Bryan Willis & John McPeake
Other combinations who will be biting at the heels of the top three in any individual race are Lee Statham & Andy Paul (4070) from the South Coast, Trevor D'Arcy & Alan McClernon (4061) from Carrickfergus, Bryan Willis & John McPeake from County Antrim Yacht Club and from Killyleagh, Andy McCleery & Colin Dougan (4120). And there are a number of home-based combinations who will have good individual race results over the weekend – Ken Dumpleton & Joe Hickey (3955), David Mulvin & Ronan Beirne (4068), Niall Coleman & Conor Grimley (4008), Niall Meagher & Nicki Matthews (4128) and 2025 season debutants, Chris Arrowsmith & David Cahill (3920).
You may, on reading this article, suggest that I have hedged my bets, by mentioning so many combinations who have the potential to win this event. And, currently, that is one of the big attractions of the Class – the depth of competition in the fleet.
Weather will be a big factor and at present (Wed morning) the forecast is for light winds on Friday, 2 – 5knots from 10am onwards, Saturday 7 – 16knots with a peak of 20 knots at 13:00 and Sunday – blowing hooligans. This may end up being a two-day regatta!
Peter Kennedy & Stephen Kane
The light conditions will help the mixed crews but won't disadvantage the heavier combinations whereas the heavier conditions will have the reverse benefits.
And so to a projection. Rather than trying to guess a 1-2-3, let me suggest that the top end of the fleet will be drawn from the following combinations.
- Peter Kennedy & Stephen Kane.
- Shane McCarthy & Hugh McNally
- Sean Craig & Alan Green
- Niall & Ronan O'Briain
- Dermot Flaherty & Brendan MacDonnacha
- Ian Mathews & Keith Poole
- Phil Lawton & Neil O'Hagan
- David Gorman & Chris Doorly
- Andy McCleery & Colin Dougan
- Trevor D'Arcy & Alan McClernon
- Lee Statham & Andy Paul.
This correspondent won't be in attendance as he will be officiating at a race on the other side of the country. Wishing you all good winds!
