Light winds on Dublin Bay look set to determine the 2024 Unio ICRA National Championships at the Royal Irish Yacht Club (RIYC) this weekend as 62 cruiser-racers gather for the first race of the 20th-anniversary championship on Friday morning.
The 2024 regatta will mark the sixth time the championships have sailed on the Dublin Bay race track, and tight competition is lined up in its three IRC fleets with plenty of pre-regatta tune-ups and new sails hoisted in last night's final DBSC Thursday night race of the season.
The championship is the first of three late-season major regattas for the Dun Laoghaire club.
Wind forecasting to play a big part
The weather pattern indicates generally light to medium airs. Most wind models call light airs on Friday, a little more on Saturday, maybe around 10 knots. Sunday is generally light, though one wind model is showing 15 knots for the last day and the possibilities of thermals.
Live webcam views of the Dublin Bay race track are here.
Friday looks set to feature northwest winds of six to eight knots in the morning, veering northeast, (the Bay's seabreeze direction), at the same strength in the afternoon for the opening two windward-leeward races.
On Saturday, more northeasterly winds are forecast for the three scheduled round-the-can races. Easterly and southeast winds are forecast for Sunday, with 10-12 knots for the final two windward-leeward races of the seven-race championships.
Tacticians will weigh up these forecasts, factor in the Bay's strong tidal influences, and add in a Dublin Bay chop, typical in north-easterly winds.
Three fleets
The fleet includes all its defending champions, ICRA's boat of the year for 2023 and several quality visitors from Northern Ireland, Wexford, Wales, and Cork Harbour.
The fleet is split into three: Fleet One comprises Class Zero and One. Fleet Two comprises Class Two, Class Three, and Non-Spinnaker. The third fleet is for the ten boats of the Beneteau 31.7s making their ICRA debut with their national championships.
Class Zero: Valentina and Jelly Baby Vie for title
In Class Zero IRC, pundits say the light winds should favour the all-around performance of both the J112 Valentina and the J122 Jelly Baby, as other high-rated designs in the excellent nine-boat turnout look to save their time in what are expected to be displacement conditions.
Johnny Treanor's Valentina and Brian Jones's Jelly Baby come to the ICRA line with some strong performances in 2024. Treanor was the overall Cork Week Champion from July, while Jones was an August Cowes Week class winner and was the former Kaya from Greystones was previously crowned overall ICRA champion on the Bay in 2021.
While the Js may have the edge, Paul O'Higgins's JPK 10.80 Rockabill VI from the host club can still be a force to contend with, especially on the three-round-the-cans courses that on Saturday should leave plenty of room for different wind angles and plenty of sail changes.
The same goes for the well-optimised First 50, Checkmate XX of Nigel Biggs and Dave Cullen from Howth and visiting IRC Welsh National Champion, the Corby 37 Impetuous (Miller Crompton Hodges).
Pundits say not to discount some of the other marques but light winds could be problematic for Pete Smyth's biggest boat of the fleet, the Ker 46, Searcher. As her results at Cowes Week showed, she may struggle with handicaps in lighter non-planing conditions.
Also in this class is David Maguire's Cape 31 Valkyrie, a potent sportsboat designed to plane but again only if winds are stronger.
Class One: J109s set stage for a thrilling rematch
Almost halved in size since 2021's 26-boat turnout, Class One, with 14 entries, is still the biggest numerically in 2024.
Pundits say weekend conditions will favour the lower-rated J109s, and ten are entered, but it will be difficult to pick who will emerge from the top five of these winning campaigns.
Current champion Outrajeous is taking the defence seriously and comes to the ICRA line with Killian Collins and Ross McDonald onboard, current 1720 European champions.
Chimaera and Joker II (a four-time ICRA winner) are in the pack, and sailmakers Maurice O'Connell and Mark Mansfield are onboard, respectively. As regular Afloat readers know, scoring six bullets in the ten-race Volvo Cork Week IRC One Series, Barry Cunningham’s RIYC J/109 Chimaera won a close encounter with defending champion and Dublin clubmate John Maybury’s J/109 Joker 2, which won four races so that this weekend will be something of a rematch. In Thursday's final DBSC race before the ICRAs, it was Chimaera again on top.
The J/99 Snapshot, owned by Richard and Michael Evans from Howth, is competitive in light and medium conditions. Sailmaker Shane Hughes will be aboard, so she can expect to eye the podium.
Belfast Lough's top performing A35 from John Minnis in Final Call II, who took first place in the 22-strong Cruisers One division of 2023 Volvo Dun Laoghaire Regatta, had plenty of breeze on that occasion but is not likely to find as much wind this weekend.
Add to this mix the DBSC Series season leaders Tim and Richard Goodbody's White Mischief and Pat Kelly's Storm of Howth, and it all makes for some tight racing.
Depending on what talent these J109s have onboard will determine who will likely come out on top.
Class Two: Half-Tonners to take the podium
It is hard to see anything but a half-tonner winning 11-boat Class Two. Darren Wright's Mata from Howth and Ronan Downing's Miss Whiplash from Royal Cork will have a good fight, but James Dwyer's Swuzzlebubble, the ICRA Boat of the Year 2023, should have an edge over them. Frank Whelan's A31 Crazy Diamond, an ECHO winner at the Taste of Greystones Regatta last weekend, will be thereabouts as well, but in the light airs, the Half-Tonners should take the podium.
Class Three: Quarter Tonner Snoopy in charge
It might be the smallest class with eight boats, but it arguably has the biggest mix of boats. Most likely, the defending champion quarter tonner, Snoopy from Courtown Sailing Club, and the First Class 8 Allig8r of Peter Levins et al. from the Royal St. George Yacht Club will battle for this class title.
Class Non Spinnaker: Bite the Bullet to lead eight boat line up
An eight-boat non-spinnaker class features three Howth visitors and a mix of boats, including the vintage Marian Maid entered by the host club's George, Hal, and Owen Sisk. The likely front-runner in this group is Colm Bermingham's Elan 333 Bite the Bullet that put in a star showing in NS Class 4 in Wave 2024 back in May as Afloat reported here.
Beneteau First 31.7: Good Prospects for defending champions
For the first time, the national championships of the Beneteau First 31.7 class will feature in the ICRA National Championships.
Up to nine locally based 31.7s race regularly on the Bay as a class under the Dublin Bay Sailing Club burgee (captained by Roger Conan) and are expected to contest the championships with entries coming from the National YC, Royal St.George YC, and the host club.
The reigning champion is Chris Johnston, the skipper of Prospect, who successfully defended his title on the Bay last September will be defending.
The 31.7s will receive two sets of results and prizes—one based on 'Scratch' as One Designs and the other on ECHO handicaps.
Full entry list below.