With Saturday's Round Ireland Yacht Race fast approaching, Mystic Meg is keeping her crystal ball unusually well covered.
The popular Afloat.ie forecasting exercise has become a fixture of Round Ireland build-up, offering a light-hearted assessment of the likely contenders. But at this point, MegFloater is stopping short of publishing outright odds.
"At this remove, with an unsettled weather pattern, Mystic Meg is not going to offer detailed odds but will suggest groups from which the overall winner might emerge," the assessment states.
Instead, the fleet has been divided into two camps: boats considered capable of winning overall and those viewed as likely podium contenders.
Among the boats identified as potential overall winners are Warrior, Khumbu, Aurelia, Mzungu!, Cristina, Sky Business – Game On, Bellino, RORC Griffin, Outrajeous, The Big Picture, Pata Negra, Leonard and Black Sheep.
Big Call — Mike Evans' J/112E The Big Picture races in Dublin Bay during last week's National Yacht Club Regatta. Mystic Meg has identified the Howth Yacht Club entry as a potential overall winner in Saturday's Round Ireland Yacht Race. Photo: Afloat
The podium possibles list includes Jezebel, J'Ouvert, Whiskey Jack, Loinnir Girl, Sunrise, Paradox, El Syd, Venomous and Cavatina.
The forecast uncertainty is one reason Mystic Meg is keeping her crystal ball under wraps for now. Early indications point to a light-air start off Wicklow on Saturday, with a ridge of high pressure threatening to dominate the opening stages. In such conditions, finding pressure and avoiding calm patches can be as important as outright boat speed, making the task of picking a winner even more hazardous than usual.
Unlike previous years, Meg has resisted narrowing the field, effectively leaving almost half the fleet in contention. That reflects both the depth of the entry and the possibility that weather routing could prove decisive in the early stages of the 704-nautical-mile race.
As ever, some of Meg's selections are likely to generate debate dockside. Perhaps the most surprising call is the placement of Tom Kneen's Sunrise among the podium possibles rather than the outright winner category.
The new JPK 11.30 is one of the more closely watched entries in this year's fleet. While Sunrise has yet to establish a Round Ireland form book, the design has earned a formidable reputation offshore and many observers might have expected her to feature among the leading contenders for overall victory.
Whether Meg is exercising caution over a relatively untested package or simply refusing to over-commit remains unclear. Either way, the omission is certain to become one of the talking points before Saturday's start from Wicklow.
With the countdown now under way, Mystic Meg is expected to revisit the runners and riders before the starting gun. Whether she is prepared to attach actual odds remains another matter entirely.
